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In Brief: Predicting Someone's Age By Their Name

By Norman Chan

Using statistics, of course.

In the new Planet of the Apes movie, Keri Russell's character briefly talks about how she had a young daughter who died of the simian flu virus. As the character was telling the story, my friend--who had not seen the film--leaned over to me and said "I bet her daughter's name was Sarah." And indeed, just a second later, that's what was uttered on screen. This prediction led to a discussion post-screening about why Sarah was such a suitable (and predictable) name to evoke the image of a child never seen in the film. Why is Sarah evocative of a young child and not a name like Bessie or Helen? Earlier this year, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight did a statistical analysis of the popularity of names, based on public data from Social Security Administration. We've seen websites and apps that show how popular names are over time, but Silver's team went a step further to calculate the median ages for every common and uncommon name, for both male and female names. Of all living Sarah's, for example, the median age is 26. While if you were to meet a Helen in person, it's more likely that she's older, given that the median age for Helen's still alive is 73. And the names with the youngest median age? For girls, it's Ava, and for boys, it's Liam. Jayden comes in at a close second. Thanks, Will and Jada.